A Dangerous Storm Season: Understaffed and Underprepared

The 2025 hurricane season is off to an alarming start—and not just because of the number of expected storms. Scientists are deeply concerned about a dangerous mix of factors: a sharp decline in meteorological data, understaffed forecasting teams, and a climate primed for rapidly intensifying storms.

Since January, staffing cuts at the National Weather Service (NWS) have left some Florida offices up to 39% understaffed. That’s a serious problem during extended severe weather events like hurricanes, when fatigue can lead to critical forecasting mistakes. At the same time, fewer weather balloon launches mean less atmospheric data is being collected nationwide.

While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) itself remains relatively well-staffed, essential support agencies like NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters have suffered key personnel losses. With fewer reconnaissance flights possible, some storms could go unmonitored—leaving forecasters to make critical decisions with limited information.

That’s not just theoretical. In 2023, Hurricane Otis exploded into a Category 5 storm near Acapulco, Mexico—just 24 hours after being predicted as a tropical storm. The forecast missed the mark largely due to the lack of timely reconnaissance data.

This year, NOAA forecasts a 90% chance of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with up to 17 tropical storms expected. But without enough staff or data, even the best models may fall short.

The bottom line: Know your risks, make a plan, and stay informed. The system that keeps us safe is strained—don’t let that catch you off guard.